Eurabia

Europe or Eurabia 2050

Written by Sandra Carney
Sunday, March 19, 2006


The question is: Do we really want our children and grandchildren depending on a European continent that will come to be known as Eurabia?

The United Nations’ calculations on the size of immigrants needed in Western Europe to stabilize the work force leave little room for optimism.

If the ageing problem is to be solved and the old age dependency ratio kept constant through immigration alone, then over 700 million people will have to have begun immigrating into the 15 richest European Union countries in 2000 and continue at a constant rate for the next two generations.

Only with this level of immigration will there be 100 people of working age for every 24 retirees, as there are today.

If this can be achieved by the year 2050, the population of the EU will be 1.2 billion--of which 920 million (about 75% of the populace) will be immigrants and their descendants.

The dimensions of such an immigration requirement are not very realistic.

Not to be daunted, however, the United Nations has made another more modest calculation.

In order to keep the size of the population, aged 15 to 64 constant, at the level it was between 1994 to 2000, (250 million), 80 million people would have to migrate to Europe over the next two generations.

If this can be achieved, by the year 2050, the total population should rise to 420 million, of which immigrants and their descendants will be 110 million, or 29%. With this level of immigration there will be 42 retirees per 100 people of working age.

Of course, this is worse than the required 56 retirees per 100 workers, but better than today’s 25 retirees per 100 workers.

Where will these people come from?

Eastern Europe? Not likely, since the demographic outlook for this region is catastrophic.

The United Nations calculates that the population of that region will drop from 297 million to 185 million during the next several decades.

There closest geographic area that can supply Europe with this massive number is Northern Africa and the Middle East. Populations in these impoverished regions will grow from 560 million to 1.1 billion by 2050. The median age will change from 23 in 2005 to 26 years in 2050.

Do we really want our children and grandchildren depending on Eurabia?

The Muslims who have been emigrating today have not been able to assimilate in their newly adopted countries. There have been riots in France over such trivialities as head-scarfs for women students. There have been similar problems in the United Kingdom, with the bus bombings by the sons of Muslim emigrants. The shoe bomber, Richard Reid, was British born, with one Muslim parent. The Danish cartoons have caused riots, mayhem, and deaths worldwide.

In a study done by Goldman Sachs, by the year 2050 the economies of China and India combined will be six times larger than the combined economies of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The size of Brazil’s economy will be larger than Italy’s by 2025, France’s by 2031, and the U.K.’s by 2036. The rise in China and India will not mean the decline of the USA. Instead, it will come at the expense of Europe, whose loss of share of the global GDP will continue to be chiefly for demographic reasons.

The future of the world is not in Europe

From a geopolitical perspective, it’s time for the USA to disengage from Europe. The European countries should not, and will not, be our partners in the future. Militarily they spend between 1%-2% on their own defense. We spend 4%-5%, (which is up from 3% under President Clinton). But even these modest expenditures on defense by the Europeans will be under pressure due to the increasing burdens of pensions and health care costs.

Can we count on the EU?

With the exception of the United Kingdom, will Europeans come to our aid militarily? It does not seem likely. Even if they are willing, they will not have the means.

The Europeans believe that they are wise and sophisticated, and they sneer at Americans as undistinguished, gum-chewing rednecks. Though they scorn us, when they are in trouble, they traditionally have looked to America to save their cans, and no doubt will continue to do so. After all, what have they to lose?

Lest we forget, 20th Century Europe brought us World War I, World War II, the Cold War, Fascism and Nazism, Socialism, and Communism, with sprinklings of other minor conflicts in-between, such as the three Balkan wars of 1910, 1911, and 1990. And who can forget the Spanish Civil War?

Strategically, the Orient and South Asia are where economic and trade growth is going to be. The USA needs to develop strong relationships with countries in those regions. We need to find a way to resolve the issues between China and Taiwan, and between India and Pakistan. The latter conflict is between Hindus and Muslims and going back centuries.

China and India already have a strong-interest agenda in working with the USA, in fighting the Islamic terrorists, and in trade. The forecast in the crystal globe is clearly telling America that it is in our national interest to become friends with the Indians and Chinese, as they are no longer under the boots of socialism or communism and are thriving in Free Markets. We can continue to love the old country, but we need to stop being influenced by their pedestrian, myopic unproductive and potentially self-defeating policies.

While it is not in the interests of the United States simply to abandon Europe to a takeover by an increasingly Muslim immigrant population, our foreign policy efforts should continue to focus on getting Europeans themselves to come to understand how important it is to preserve their ties with the United States and to preserve their national identities. Their future depends on it--and ours may well depend on it too.

About the Writer: Sandra Carney, born in India, is Anglo-Burmese, of British birth. She became an American Citizen in 1972 and has enjoyed living in the U.S.A. since 1967. She inherited her interest in politics from a family heavily inculcated in the politics of their times. Because of her mixed heritage, she is keenly interested in all that goes on around the world and is fiercely protective of her adopted country, the U.S.A.

posted by Gurdjieff @ 3:41 PM